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| POSTED BY: Lucy on 07/29/2007 05:11:52 |
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If BD were to become ASEAN member, would China, Japan, Korea and India support that?
Some might think whether there is a justification of this question, since the issue should be resolved by BD and ASEAN. However, the ground reality is that these four engines of Asian growth are the major trading partners of ASEAN and ASEAN will be concerned about their thoughts regarding BD membership of ASEAN.
Would Bangladesh ever want a membership in the East Asian regional grouping of countries that is called ASEAN? What would that mean for the people of Bangladesh? How does that improve the political and security situation in the region? Most importantly, in the era when trade between the nations are dictating the norms, how BD membership of ASEAN would improve the regional and international trade? At the time, when Bangladesh seems to be focused on strengthening its connectivity with Myanmar, the western frontier of ASEAN, these are relevant questions to ask.
If one looks at the geo-political situation in Asia, specifically, on the eastern part of the continent, one might notice that there is an emerging trend in the region. Political, security and economic alliances are nothing new in the world. However, these were not so prominent in the region that we are discussing about in this article. The emergence of ASEAN as an economic force has forced the analysts to mark it as one of the significant development in the world politics. Seemingly divided and culturally distant countries of eastern part of Asia have proven that political and economic alliances can be built on sound ground on the basis of need of the member countries which is in contrast of previous alliances around the world (many of which were born out of historical connection, political ambition or security concerns of the super powers).
Aside from this specific uniqueness of ASEAN, it also has another significance. In Asia, we have been noticing several power center growing over the years. On the economic front, Japan became a super power long back. S. Korea has also a significant economic power. In recent times, China and India is increasingly the talking point - both in security and economic fronts. Given these ongoing developments, the small states in the South Eastern part of Asia has joined together to form ASEAN which has grown into its maturity that is demonstrated into the growth of ARF - ASEAN Regional Forum.
Although, we Bangladeshis often like to think we are part of South Asia, but when one looks at the economic undercurrent that is influencing the world politics and trade, there is actually no South Asia, one could successfully argue. It might be a good time to take stock of the developments around and re-assess our position in the world political and economic system. It seems we better fit to be part of South East Asia given the ground realities.
We have written on this topic earlier in this column - there are three major economic horses in Asia that surrounds Bangladesh. To simplify the big picture, we use a weighted system instead of merely looking at the borders:
Our Western neighbor is India.
Our Northern neighbor is China.
Our Eastern neighbor is ASEAN.
In the South, we have Bay of Bengal.
So, where do we stand in terms of regional trade groupings and economic alliances?
For anybody with a strategic inclination, this would indicate a great opportunity for Bangladesh. BD does not have to be part of any regional economic grouping. It can become the center of the economic developments that is happening around her - facilitating a financial and trade corridor for the three great horses around her so that the interaction among these three big players become smoother. Theoretically, this is true. But does the ground realities support this notion? Answer to this question will depend on how you look at the problem or whom do you ask. There is also the question of whether the three players are willing to facilitate this center of the three regions to really become the center of financial, economic and trading system. Most importantly, is this a proposition that makes all the three players win to some extant? How do we make sure that the three parties see the development in that direction would be in their best interest? Also, there is an issue of capacity building of Bangladeshi system. How long would that need? This is a question that time will answer. Also, the answers to these questions have be seeked by the players themselves as well as Bangladesh herself!
For now, it seems a reasonable to imagine that Bangladesh could be an effective player in the system if she joins her hand with ASEAN. It seems more reasonable now, since Myanmar government seems to be agreeable to the notion of Bangladesh becoming a member of the ASEAN. At least, the symtoms are like that. There is also underlying logic in support of this kind of assertion. If that happens, the long time isolated country stand to gain in several ways, all of which are economic. The ASEAN framework would be much easier and beneficial for Myanmar to handle the growing and planned economic transactions between Bangladesh and Myanmar in coming days. One would not be surprised if Myanmer were to propose BD as a prospective ASEAN member. If that really happens, we are sure that there would be more than several members in ASEAN who will make sure that the proposal grows to become a ASEAN resolution to induct Bangladesh as its 11th member. It would be nice group of "Ora Egaro Jon" :):)
What we are not sure whether other significant players around this region will be want this to happen - in other words, whether they would oppose it?
What do you think?
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